Friday, March 9, 2007

Forecast Discussion

The map this morning shows a cold front moving through northwest Iowa. At the same time, there is an area of low pressure located in northeast Kansas. Both the low (in Kansas) and the cold front (in Iowa) will move east today with clouds and showers. You can't see it yet on the map but there is an area of high pressure just to the east of the end of the left part of the map. This will provide us with sunshine on Saturday...but first the showers. There is more moisture with the low pressure system than the cold front. Most of the rain falling as of this morning (radar image to the right) is across Missouri and it moving east and a little northeast. Ahead of the systems the wind today will be from the south and southeast. Once they move to our east this evening the wind will shift to the northwest and the sky will clear. This combination tonight will allow the temperatures to drop into the 20s for Saturday morning. The map to the below (for this evening) is from the GFS model run from last night. The rain will be coming to an end this evening across the area. Now you can see the high pressure on the map located in Colorado. The latest QPF forecast (the amount of moisture possible) has about .10" to .25" of rain for eastern Iowa with most of it falling across the southeast part of the state. The heaviest rain will fall in Missouri and Arkansas with amounts more than .50". I want to take a jump ahead to Sunday. Yesterday's post I showed you the GFS model painting precipitation over Iowa and south. Below is the latest model run for the same time period. If you go back and look at the last one you can see there is a big difference. There is no more moisture over Iowa...it is not much further south with the northern portion in central Missouri. A south and southwest wind behind the departing area of high pressure in the Great Lakes will push temperatures into the 50s Monday and Tuesday. What will also help temperatures warm early next week will be how far north the jet stream is. To the right is a 300 mb map. This is the high where the jet stream is. Notice the dark blue shading along the US/Canadian border running east/west. That is the jet stream. The cold air is north of the jet and the warm air south of the jet.


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