A stationary front is located to our south this morning and will remain to our south through tomorrow. North of the front, an east wind will persist with speeds of 15-25 mph.
The 12 hr 500 mb NAM forecast (this morning) shows the weak upper level trof (red dashed line) which is the reason for the light showers in the Midwest today. Rain amounts today will be light...generally under 0.25". A weak ridge (blue zig-zag line) to our west will strengthen later tonight.
Looking at the 48 hr 500 mb NAM forecast (Thursday evening) the ridge of high pressure mentioned above is stronger (more of a wavy line). This ridge will keep the low pressure trof in the Rockies from moving quickly east. The rain/thunderstorm chances will hold off until Thursday night here in eastern Iowa due to that ridge.
There is a chance of severe weather, to our west, as the surface front and upper level trof move east of the Rockies later tonight. The map from SPC, has a slight to moderate risk of severe weather along the front this evening and tonight. 
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