Forecast Discussion

7:45 AM Satellite

The visible satellite over the Midwest shows a clear sky over Iowa with just a few clouds along the Iowa/Minnesota state line. As the day goes on, there will be enough instability in the atmosphere, the sky will become partly cloudy. Notice the swirl in the clouds over northern Minnesota. These clouds are associated with this disturbance. The timing of this with the heating of the day and very cold air aloft may produce a few late afternoon thunderstorms.

7 PM Today 500 mb Forecast
NGM (left)...NAM (center)...GFS (right)

The three above models are for the same time period later today. I circled (blue line) the vorticity maximum as it moves across MN/WI/IL/IA late this afternoon and evening. This will give us the potential for a few t-storms.

Convective Forecast for today from SPC

There is no organize threat for severe weather around the Midwest but, 1 or 2 of the storms that pop up later today may be severe. The above map shows where the small potential of a funnel cloud or brief tornado might occur. The combination of very cold air aloft and the upper level disturbance timed to be over this area during the peak heating of the day might be just the right ingredients for this to occur.

Water Vapor & 500 mb map (this morning)

The disturbance is noticeable on the above map over Minnesota. This will move south and enhance the potential for a few late afternoon/evening t-storms.